Advanced  

Latest Result

Grand Final MCG
Sat, 29 Sep 2018 • 12:00 WST
West Coast Collingwood
11.13 (79) 11.8 (74)
Game Focus



Tim Kelly - The Whole Two Year Trade Story

The list and its future

Moderator: DALBY

Re: Tim Kelly - The Whole Two Year Trade Story

Postby Pinion King on Sat Oct 12, 2019 1:12 am

Why are you so hung up on this? Are you saying we should just accept mediocrity and go through the same endless cycle? Become like the mob down the road? Are we going through a rebuild where we need kids? We are not sitting at the back of the 8 building a list, we are up the top of the ladder going full throttle at a flag.

An absolute star has now joined our club to help us win a flag, and who in a few years be the figure our midfield is built around. Yet you want us to not get the star and to play lotto with a couple of 18 year old kids, who could turn out to be average players with nothing special? By the time they even start to develop our chance of a flag is gone.

If you are thinking that, then you must be colour blind, our colours are blue and gold, not purple.

If you want to get anywhere in this game, then you have to take risks. This is ours.

Our next wave of players are developing nicley and we have players for every line who are learning the craft getting ready for their time. The club and list managers aren't stupid, they have plans for the club we have no idea about.
The only team we are destined to be is the team we decide to be. - West Coast Eagles, 2018 Premiers
User avatar
Pinion King
EFH Legend
 
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2012 4:40 pm

Re: Tim Kelly - The Whole Two Year Trade Story

Postby Crazy Dazz on Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:49 pm

Pinion King wrote:Become like the mob down the road?
If you are thinking that, then you must be colour blind, our colours are blue and gold, not purple.

Ironic, considering this is the single most "Muppet-Like" thing we have ever done.

Sadly infact this is more extreme than anything they ever did. Selling the farm for a single player we think will be the Messiah and prop open our window is practically their Theme-Song, but at least when they did their worst trades they weren't able to also throw away future picks.

It's also bizarre, that so many defend the state of our midfield, whilst in the same breath claiming that adding a Mid is going to be our salvation. :lol:
Last edited by Crazy Dazz on Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Crazy Dazz
EFH Legend
 
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2006 5:18 pm

Re: Tim Kelly - The Whole Two Year Trade Story

Postby Crazy Dazz on Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:53 pm

I almost hate to mention this. This issue is now done, dusted, and consigned to history.

But with List Lodgement today, the one thing that still puzzles me, is why we rolled so early?
At the time, I assumed we were clearing the decks for other trades, but we apparently had no interest in doing anything more? So what was the rush?

Could we have squeezed something more if we'd been prepared to negotiate for another week?
We'll never know I guess, just curious.
Crazy Dazz
EFH Legend
 
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2006 5:18 pm

Re: Tim Kelly - The Whole Two Year Trade Story

Postby Fat Side on Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:24 pm

When a top five player in the competition that year is desperate to come to your club, you get him. We got him.

The bonus for us is that we’re paying unders for him. Geelong would have needed to pay him more to keep him. He’s slotted nicely into our salary cap which is no mean feat given the talent we have at the club.

The likelihood is that he will cost us two picks in the 14-18 bracket and a couple of other later swaps. If TK nominated for the draft he would go number 1. Is pick 1 worth more than picks 14 and 18? Most would say yes.

I think we ‘rolled’ early because that gave immediate peace of mind to Kelly and his family. After all ‘family’ is part of our current motto.

We’ve got him and I am happy with it. We have him for five years. The club has done all they can, it’s up to the boys to make it happen. God knows we now have the cattle.
Make the switch now
User avatar
Fat Side
EFH Hall of Fame
 
Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2015 7:52 pm

Re: Tim Kelly - The Whole Two Year Trade Story

Postby Mr Q on Fri Nov 01, 2019 12:59 pm

Fat Side wrote:The bonus for us is that we’re paying unders for him. Geelong would have needed to pay him more to keep him. He’s slotted nicely into our salary cap which is no mean feat given the talent we have at the club.


This is underrated when discussing this trade - the focus is all on the draft picks paid.

On the form of the last couple of years, Kelly would demand an astronomical pay rate on the open market - we've got him at numbers that allow us to fit him into our cap without having to do a bunch of gymnastics to make it happen. The result is that he's an addition to our team from last year, not a replacement for one of our stars.

On this being a "muppet-like" trade, it's not really the same. When Freo have done similar trades, they've paid the price, but haven't had the cattle to slot another team's performing #3/4/5 midfielder in as they've then had to be the #1 - the classic example being Des Hedland who was no longer in line behind Voss, Akermanis, Lappin and Simon Black, and thus fell away. At the very least, Kelly provides us someone who will help us get Yeo or Shuey off the leash, which makes us damned dangerous in the middle of the ground, and able compete strongly with all the best midfields in the competition. Essentially we're swapping out Masten for Kelly - and while I"ve never been a Masten basher, that's a massive lift for us.
"I like to pay taxes. With them I buy civilisation" - Oliver Wendell Holmes
Alternative facts, alternative facts, pants on fire....
User avatar
Mr Q
EFH Posting Lunatic
 
Joined: Wed Mar 31, 2004 8:59 pm
Location: Block 331

Re: Tim Kelly - The Whole Two Year Trade Story

Postby Crazy Dazz on Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:09 pm

Mr Q wrote:On this being a "muppet-like" trade, it's not really the same. When Freo have done similar trades, they've paid the price, but haven't had the cattle to slot another team's performing #3/4/5 midfielder in as they've then had to be the #1 - the classic example being Des Hedland who was no longer in line behind Voss, Akermanis, Lappin and Simon Black, and thus fell away. At the very least, Kelly provides us someone who will help us get Yeo or Shuey off the leash, which makes us damned dangerous in the middle of the ground, and able compete strongly with all the best midfields in the competition. Essentially we're swapping out Masten for Kelly - and while I"ve never been a Masten basher, that's a massive lift for us.

Don't get we wrong, I am very happy to have Kelly.
I only say "Muppet-Like" in the context that they have a history of paying the farm for single players they thought would be their Saviour.
Difference is that compared to their situation when they made some of those trades, we are already a bloody good team. Probably realistically a top-4 team. So whilst the view of some that Kelly guarantees us a flag is extremely Muppetish, I don't think the CLUB is looking at him as the saviour.

And yes, if numbers reported are to be believed, then Kelly signed for less than Hill. That's a stand-up guy.
Crazy Dazz
EFH Legend
 
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2006 5:18 pm

Re: Tim Kelly - The Whole Two Year Trade Story

Postby Fat Side on Sat Nov 02, 2019 3:35 am

Crazy Dazz wrote:
Mr Q wrote:On this being a "muppet-like" trade, it's not really the same. When Freo have done similar trades, they've paid the price, but haven't had the cattle to slot another team's performing #3/4/5 midfielder in as they've then had to be the #1 - the classic example being Des Hedland who was no longer in line behind Voss, Akermanis, Lappin and Simon Black, and thus fell away. At the very least, Kelly provides us someone who will help us get Yeo or Shuey off the leash, which makes us damned dangerous in the middle of the ground, and able compete strongly with all the best midfields in the competition. Essentially we're swapping out Masten for Kelly - and while I"ve never been a Masten basher, that's a massive lift for us.

Don't get we wrong, I am very happy to have Kelly.
I only say "Muppet-Like" in the context that they have a history of paying the farm for single players they thought would be their Saviour.
Difference is that compared to their situation when they made some of those trades, we are already a bloody good team. Probably realistically a top-4 team. So whilst the view of some that Kelly guarantees us a flag is extremely Muppetish, I don't think the CLUB is looking at him as the saviour.

And yes, if numbers reported are to be believed, then Kelly signed for less than Hill. That's a stand-up guy.


I haven’t heard anyone saying that TK guarantees us a flag, but if somebody did, they’re delusional.
Make the switch now
User avatar
Fat Side
EFH Hall of Fame
 
Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2015 7:52 pm

Re: Tim Kelly - The Whole Two Year Trade Story

Postby Mitchell1 on Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:12 am

Mr Q wrote:
Fat Side wrote:The bonus for us is that we’re paying unders for him. Geelong would have needed to pay him more to keep him. He’s slotted nicely into our salary cap which is no mean feat given the talent we have at the club.


This is underrated when discussing this trade - the focus is all on the draft picks paid.

On the form of the last couple of years, Kelly would demand an astronomical pay rate on the open market - we've got him at numbers that allow us to fit him into our cap without having to do a bunch of gymnastics to make it happen. The result is that he's an addition to our team from last year, not a replacement for one of our stars.

On this being a "muppet-like" trade, it's not really the same. When Freo have done similar trades, they've paid the price, but haven't had the cattle to slot another team's performing #3/4/5 midfielder in as they've then had to be the #1 - the classic example being Des Hedland who was no longer in line behind Voss, Akermanis, Lappin and Simon Black, and thus fell away. At the very least, Kelly provides us someone who will help us get Yeo or Shuey off the leash, which makes us damned dangerous in the middle of the ground, and able compete strongly with all the best midfields in the competition. Essentially we're swapping out Masten for Kelly - and while I"ve never been a Masten basher, that's a massive lift for us.



Is there a risk that now Kelly isn't behind Selwood and Dangerfield it could be a similar occurrence ?

Saying that - there is no point in stressing about the decision now it is dusted. In 5 - 8 years it will either be a genius trade or a disaster trade.
Mitchell1
Rookie
 
Joined: Tue Jul 25, 2017 7:33 pm

Re: Tim Kelly - The Whole Two Year Trade Story

Postby Fat Side on Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:41 am

Mitchell1 wrote:
Mr Q wrote:
Fat Side wrote:The bonus for us is that we’re paying unders for him. Geelong would have needed to pay him more to keep him. He’s slotted nicely into our salary cap which is no mean feat given the talent we have at the club.


This is underrated when discussing this trade - the focus is all on the draft picks paid.

On the form of the last couple of years, Kelly would demand an astronomical pay rate on the open market - we've got him at numbers that allow us to fit him into our cap without having to do a bunch of gymnastics to make it happen. The result is that he's an addition to our team from last year, not a replacement for one of our stars.

On this being a "muppet-like" trade, it's not really the same. When Freo have done similar trades, they've paid the price, but haven't had the cattle to slot another team's performing #3/4/5 midfielder in as they've then had to be the #1 - the classic example being Des Hedland who was no longer in line behind Voss, Akermanis, Lappin and Simon Black, and thus fell away. At the very least, Kelly provides us someone who will help us get Yeo or Shuey off the leash, which makes us damned dangerous in the middle of the ground, and able compete strongly with all the best midfields in the competition. Essentially we're swapping out Masten for Kelly - and while I"ve never been a Masten basher, that's a massive lift for us.



Is there a risk that now Kelly isn't behind Selwood and Dangerfield it could be a similar occurrence ?

Saying that - there is no point in stressing about the decision now it is dusted. In 5 - 8 years it will either be a genius trade or a disaster trade.


He’s not behind Dangerfield, Duncan and (a declining) Selwood anymore, he’s behind Shuey, Yeo, Redden, Sheed and Gaff.
Make the switch now
User avatar
Fat Side
EFH Hall of Fame
 
Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2015 7:52 pm

Re: Tim Kelly - The Whole Two Year Trade Story

Postby Crazy Dazz on Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:23 pm

Fat Side wrote:
Mitchell1 wrote:Is there a risk that now Kelly isn't behind Selwood and Dangerfield it could be a similar occurrence ?
Saying that - there is no point in stressing about the decision now it is dusted. In 5 - 8 years it will either be a genius trade or a disaster trade.


He’s not behind Dangerfield, Duncan and (a declining) Selwood anymore, he’s behind Shuey, Yeo, Redden, Sheed and Gaff.

Kelly isn't as good as some would make him out to be, and we paid far too much.
And I'd still love to see a genuine superstar in our midfield. But we don't need one. Yeo is close. Shuey has been consistently excellent for a long time, and I think Kelly will slot in there. Plus yes, we have guys like Gaff and Redden playing their roles exceptionally well.

If we were doing a complete "freo" and expecting Kelly to lead our midfield out of the darkness, then I'd be worried. But we're not. Our midfield is already good, he will simply give us another option. It doesn't really matter if he becomes our best mid, or our 3rd best mid or 5th. He'll improve what is already a decent midfield.

It's never going to be a "genius trade." If he wins b2b Brownlows best we can say is that we paid fair value, but the trade itself is now history. Lets just hope that we can pull a few rabbits out of this draft.
Crazy Dazz
EFH Legend
 
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2006 5:18 pm

Re: Tim Kelly - The Whole Two Year Trade Story

Postby Perrythegreat on Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:52 am

Crazy Dazz wrote:
Fat Side wrote:
Mitchell1 wrote:Is there a risk that now Kelly isn't behind Selwood and Dangerfield it could be a similar occurrence ?
Saying that - there is no point in stressing about the decision now it is dusted. In 5 - 8 years it will either be a genius trade or a disaster trade.


He’s not behind Dangerfield, Duncan and (a declining) Selwood anymore, he’s behind Shuey, Yeo, Redden, Sheed and Gaff.

Kelly isn't as good as some would make him out to be, and we paid far too much.
And I'd still love to see a genuine superstar in our midfield. But we don't need one. Yeo is close. Shuey has been consistently excellent for a long time, and I think Kelly will slot in there. Plus yes, we have guys like Gaff and Redden playing their roles exceptionally well.

If we were doing a complete "freo" and expecting Kelly to lead our midfield out of the darkness, then I'd be worried. But we're not. Our midfield is already good, he will simply give us another option. It doesn't really matter if he becomes our best mid, or our 3rd best mid or 5th. He'll improve what is already a decent midfield.

It's never going to be a "genius trade." If he wins b2b Brownlows best we can say is that we paid fair value, but the trade itself is now history. Lets just hope that we can pull a few rabbits out of this draft.


Haha

Really? B2B brownlows would be fair value? Considering that hasn't been done sine Robert Harvey in '97 & '98 and only 6 times in history (incl. Haydn Bunton and Dick Reynolds) - you are completely wrong on this one. How many #1 picks have won the brownlow?

I think you're valuation of draft picks is mad.
2015 Official sponsor of Scott Selwood, "player sponsor of Scooter every odd year"
2014 Official sponsor of NicNat, "taking the mark of the bicentenary some time soon"
2013 Official sponsor of Scott Selwood, "welcome back Scooter"
2012 Official sponsor of Josh Hill, "the tall small that kicks goals through all"
2011 Official Sponsor of Scott Selwood, "tagging midfielders in a town near you soon".
Perrythegreat
Veteran
 
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2009 3:41 pm

Re: Tim Kelly - The Whole Two Year Trade Story

Postby Clarke Markx Goalz on Tue Nov 12, 2019 2:50 pm

Perrythegreat wrote:
Haha

Really? B2B brownlows would be fair value? Considering that hasn't been done sine Robert Harvey in '97 & '98 and only 6 times in history (incl. Haydn Bunton and Dick Reynolds) - you are completely wrong on this one. How many #1 picks have won the brownlow?

I think you're valuation of draft picks is mad.

Adam Cooney
2011 Official Sponsor of the Father-son and the Jacob Brennan.
2011 EFH Dreamteam minor premier.
2012 Sponsor of Josh 'the man, the Hero' Kennedy.
User avatar
Clarke Markx Goalz
Veteran
 
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2010 1:05 pm
Location: Melbourne

Re: Tim Kelly - The Whole Two Year Trade Story

Postby Crazy Dazz on Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:18 pm

Perrythegreat wrote:
Crazy Dazz wrote:
Mitchell1 wrote:Is there a risk that now Kelly isn't behind Selwood and Dangerfield it could be a similar occurrence ?
Saying that - there is no point in stressing about the decision now it is dusted. In 5 - 8 years it will either be a genius trade or a disaster trade.

Kelly isn't as good as some would make him out to be, and we paid far too much.
And I'd still love to see a genuine superstar in our midfield. But we don't need one. Yeo is close. Shuey has been consistently excellent for a long time, and I think Kelly will slot in there. Plus yes, we have guys like Gaff and Redden playing their roles exceptionally well.

If we were doing a complete "freo" and expecting Kelly to lead our midfield out of the darkness, then I'd be worried. But we're not. Our midfield is already good, he will simply give us another option. It doesn't really matter if he becomes our best mid, or our 3rd best mid or 5th. He'll improve what is already a decent midfield.

It's never going to be a "genius trade." If he wins b2b Brownlows best we can say is that we paid fair value, but the trade itself is now history. Lets just hope that we can pull a few rabbits out of this draft.


Haha

Really? B2B brownlows would be fair value? Considering that hasn't been done sine Robert Harvey in '97 & '98 and only 6 times in history (incl. Haydn Bunton and Dick Reynolds) - you are completely wrong on this one. How many #1 picks have won the brownlow?

I think you're valuation of draft picks is mad.

and do you seriously think he's going to win b2b Brownlows? :roll:
Point is that we paid top-dollar for him. Best we can hope for is that he lives up to that value. This is never going to be another Yeo trade.
Crazy Dazz
EFH Legend
 
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2006 5:18 pm

Re: Tim Kelly - The Whole Two Year Trade Story

Postby Fat Side on Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:23 am

Crazy Dazz wrote:
Perrythegreat wrote:
Crazy Dazz wrote:Kelly isn't as good as some would make him out to be, and we paid far too much.
And I'd still love to see a genuine superstar in our midfield. But we don't need one. Yeo is close. Shuey has been consistently excellent for a long time, and I think Kelly will slot in there. Plus yes, we have guys like Gaff and Redden playing their roles exceptionally well.

If we were doing a complete "freo" and expecting Kelly to lead our midfield out of the darkness, then I'd be worried. But we're not. Our midfield is already good, he will simply give us another option. It doesn't really matter if he becomes our best mid, or our 3rd best mid or 5th. He'll improve what is already a decent midfield.

It's never going to be a "genius trade." If he wins b2b Brownlows best we can say is that we paid fair value, but the trade itself is now history. Lets just hope that we can pull a few rabbits out of this draft.


Haha

Really? B2B brownlows would be fair value? Considering that hasn't been done sine Robert Harvey in '97 & '98 and only 6 times in history (incl. Haydn Bunton and Dick Reynolds) - you are completely wrong on this one. How many #1 picks have won the brownlow?

I think you're valuation of draft picks is mad.

and do you seriously think he's going to win b2b Brownlows? :roll:
Point is that we paid top-dollar for him. Best we can hope for is that he lives up to that value. This is never going to be another Yeo trade.


We paid top dollar (draft picks) for a top end player. They don't come cheap. The Brownlow argument is just plain fucking stupid and totally irrelevant. It's time to put the incessant whinging about the Kelly recruitment to bed and move on.
Make the switch now
User avatar
Fat Side
EFH Hall of Fame
 
Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2015 7:52 pm

Re: Tim Kelly - The Whole Two Year Trade Story

Postby Crazy Dazz on Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:27 pm

I'll throw this in here, rather than start a new thread.
A few random thoughts here, and this is as good a place as any.

It's always great when players exceed what might be considered to be "expectations" based on cost. Guys like Cox, Priddis, and Lynch, picked up in the Rookie Draft, Kemp taken at pick #117, or JK given as Steak Knives in the Judd trade.
But its difficult to Judge trades in retrospect.
The pick swap with Collingwood is a classic example of the difficulty in judging based on outcomes versus what was in the minds at the time. Collingwood wanted pick 6 to get Bontempelli who was expected to be available. Had we in fact given up a chance at Bont, we'd look pretty stupid , but we didn't he went earlier and they took Scharenberg who has turned out to be an injury-plagued spud. So does that make it a "genius" trade?

I was salty as shit at the time of the Judd trade. Having Cousins smash our premiership window, them having our Captain abandon us hurt like hell. I was pissed that Carlton refused to give up their 1st pick (Kreuzer), I was pissed that we were forced to deal with Carlton even though Richmond had a better offer on the table, i was ropeable when the two clubs conspired to threaten us with the PSD, and I lost my shit when Carlton forced us to drop a sweetener into the deal.
But fact remains it was a bad idea for Carlton. They thought they were building something, and Judd would catapult them into contention, but paying so much for a "saviour-player" is always a bad move.

The argument that picks are inherently risky is certainly true, but only up to a point. Yes individual picks are a bit of a lucky-dip, but collectively a club must be able to extract value from the draft. Clubs that fail to do so, fail.
The argument is also self-defeating beyond a certain point. If every trade was a Yeo or Kennedy trade, then I'd be all for trading every pick every year. But if forced to pay through the nose for top players, then you quickly run out of picks with which to trade.
Crazy Dazz
EFH Legend
 
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2006 5:18 pm

PreviousNext

Return to Drafts and Trading

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 1 guest