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Tim Kelly - The Whole Two Year Trade Story

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Tim Kelly - The Whole Two Year Trade Story

Postby Crazy Dazz on Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:43 pm

Ok, so what's he really worth?

I have, on the whole, been really impressed with our recent trades. I'm hoping the days of the Eagles gutting their future prospects in exchange for top-up players, are far behind us.

Kelly is coming home to the Eagles, its just a question of when. His agent has made it clear that if he isn't traded, he will walk out at the end of next year.
IMHO the Cats took a big risk last year. He's an overage Indigenous player, already with a young family, and his partner was pregnant with twins. So I guess that risk won't pay off long-term. It happens.
But on the other hand they could still come away form this with a profit after one season, and that's a bonus.

I don't accept for one second that he legitimately finished 2nd in their B&F. They're claiming that in his debut season he equalled Danger, and out performed Selwood, Duncan, Menegelo, etc? Should change their name to the "Geelong Flying Pigs."
Coincidence that this unheralded result came after he announced he wanted to return home? When no other league metric rates him that highly?

Cats drafted him with pick #24 in the 2nd round last year, and he's had one good season. How do you put a value on that?
To me, a good (or event great) debut season doesn't make you a guaranteed superstar. I also feel that his value to the Eagles, is potentially less than his "absolute" value (if such a thing exists.)

There was talk that we would give up picks #20 & #22, to Sydney in exchange for their pick #13, and trade that for Kelly. However Sydney accepted a lesser deal from Carlton (#26 & #28) as part of the McGovern trade. So I'm hoping that indicates we're not prepared to throw both those picks at Kelly.

I'd certainly be happy with #20, and some kind of sweetener.
Maybe throw in next year's 2nd rounder?

The other option would be to trade a player.
Last edited by Crazy Dazz on Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:48 am, edited 7 times in total.
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Re: Tim Kelly

Postby MrWoollie on Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:45 pm

Crazy Dazz wrote:Ok, so what's he really worth?

I'd certainly be happy with #20, and some kind of sweetener.
Maybe throw in next year's 2nd rounder?

The other option would be to trade a player.

I'd live with that in a slightly unhappy way but would rather go with the pick 22 and a 3rd rounder.

Would spit chips at anything that lost both picks 20 and 22.
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Re: Tim Kelly

Postby farmer joe on Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:19 pm

If we get him with 20 and 22 I'm ok with it. He will add something special to the squad. Talk that we give up Brander though is crazy talk.
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Re: Tim Kelly

Postby MrWoollie on Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:42 pm

farmer joe wrote:If we get him with 20 and 22 I'm ok with it. He will add something special to the squad. Talk that we give up Brander though is crazy talk.

I don't know where that talks coming from but it would have to be WC get Kelly and a pretty good pick to give up Brander. And even then I'd be unhappy. Top prospect KP forwards don't grow on trees. And this one looks the goods. Bad idea.
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Re: Tim Kelly

Postby Crazy Dazz on Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:43 pm

MrWoollie wrote:
farmer joe wrote:If we get him with 20 and 22 I'm ok with it. He will add something special to the squad. Talk that we give up Brander though is crazy talk.

I don't know where that talks coming from but it would have to be WC get Kelly and a pretty good pick to give up Brander. And even then I'd be unhappy. Top prospect KP forwards don't grow on trees. And this one looks the goods. Bad idea.

He's a Bendigo boy, and went to Geelong Grammar. So people immediately spring to the conclusion that he's a Geelong boy, and we took a risk drafting him.

What that overlooks is the rather bizarre fact, than he grew up supporting the Eagles and idolising Josh Kennedy. SO being drafted by us was literally his dream come true.
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Re: Tim Kelly

Postby Crazy Dazz on Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:05 pm

farmer joe wrote:If we get him with 20 and 22 I'm ok with it. He will add something special to the squad.
We have to give up value, but I think that both picks would be too much.

He would be a nice pickup, but we're not desperate for his services.
Hard to know how to put a value on him. We gave up pick 18 for Wellingham, 28 for Yeo (in the deal of the century) and 17 for Redden.
So a lateish 1st rounder I think would be fair.
MrWoollie wrote:
Crazy Dazz wrote:I'd certainly be happy with #20, and some kind of sweetener.
Maybe throw in next year's 2nd rounder?

I'd live with that in a slightly unhappy way but would rather go with the pick 22 and a 3rd rounder.
Yes, I think value wise that #20 and next year's 3rd rounder would be fair.

Or we could offer next year's 1st rounder, and pray we go b2b.
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Re: Tim Kelly

Postby Crazy Dazz on Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:38 am

DALBY wrote:
Pinion King wrote:Geelong have rejected our first offer for Kelly.

I don't know what it was, but Nizzy let slip we had made an offer that was knocked back.


Cats want a better deal than Picks 20 and 21. Playing hard ball. :(
Hopefully 20 & 22 was not our first offer :(

If the Eagles really want him, they will pay a fair price. I just don't think that price is as high as Geelong believe.
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Re: Tim Kelly

Postby mysterio on Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:35 pm

If i was West Coast id be offering Geelong pick 20 and Jackson Nelson (Geelong boy) for Tim Kelly and a 3rd/4th round draft pick.
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Re: Tim Kelly

Postby Streaker on Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:35 pm

https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/frema ... b88989849z

TIM Kelly’s manager has reiterated his client won’t be heading to Fremantle despite reports the Dockers have offered pick 11 to lure the midfielder to the port club.

Kelly is keen to return home to WA from Geelong to help bring his partner and three young children closer to family and friends.

But the former South Fremantle product wants only to head to West Coast and not Fremantle.

“He will only go to West Coast, and if not, he will see out his contract (with Geelong),” van der Wielen told The Herald Sun.
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Re: Tim Kelly

Postby Crazy Dazz on Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:54 pm

mysterio wrote:If i was West Coast id be offering Geelong pick 20 and Jackson Nelson (Geelong boy) for Tim Kelly and a 3rd/4th round draft pick.
Not a bad call.
I think Nelson might benefit from a trade home. He's still got a lot up upside, and it might reinvigorate his career.
But Geelong's earliest next pick is currently #50.
Maybe #22 + Nelson for Kelly + #50?
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Re: Tim Kelly

Postby Crazy Dazz on Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:00 pm

Streaker wrote:https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/fremantle-dockers/afl-trades-2018-fremantle-dockers-wont-get-tim-kelly-for-pick-11-according-to-reports-ng-b88989849z
Bell wants to be careful.
It's one thing to come in and try to establish yourself as the new broom who won't be making any more shit trades, but he risks getting a lot of people offside if he's not careful.

They've already got the situation where a manager considers their club toxic, Bell should work on repairing those bridges, not burning them further.
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Re: Tim Kelly

Postby MrWoollie on Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:00 pm

Crazy Dazz wrote:
Streaker wrote:https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/fremantle-dockers/afl-trades-2018-fremantle-dockers-wont-get-tim-kelly-for-pick-11-according-to-reports-ng-b88989849z
Bell wants to be careful.
It's one thing to come in and try to establish yourself as the new broom who won't be making any more shit trades, but he risks getting a lot of people offside if he's not careful.

They've already got the situation where a manager considers their club toxic, Bell should work on repairing those bridges, not burning them further.

There is every chance that Bell is just being a [Greg Williams] to try to get WC to pay over the odds.
With every chance that WC would get Kelly for pick 20, Bell throws in an offer of pick 11, knowing it will never be accepted. This then gives Geelong a case to say 'Freo are offering pick 11, match it'. Then we look like the [GW] if we don't match. Geelong can also say 'we'd let him go home for pick 11, but he didn't want to go'.
Typical Muppet crap if you ask me.
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Re: Tim Kelly

Postby Voice of Reason on Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:22 pm

MrWoollie wrote:
Crazy Dazz wrote:
Streaker wrote:https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/fremantle-dockers/afl-trades-2018-fremantle-dockers-wont-get-tim-kelly-for-pick-11-according-to-reports-ng-b88989849z
Bell wants to be careful.
It's one thing to come in and try to establish yourself as the new broom who won't be making any more shit trades, but he risks getting a lot of people offside if he's not careful.

They've already got the situation where a manager considers their club toxic, Bell should work on repairing those bridges, not burning them further.

There is every chance that Bell is just being a [Greg Williams] to try to get WC to pay over the odds.
With every chance that WC would get Kelly for pick 20, Bell throws in an offer of pick 11, knowing it will never be accepted. This then gives Geelong a case to say 'Freo are offering pick 11, match it'. Then we look like the [GW] if we don't match. Geelong can also say 'we'd let him go home for pick 11, but he didn't want to go'.
Typical Muppet crap if you ask me.


Exactly.

And we should resist the temptation to pay overs for TK, much as I like him as a player.
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Re: Tim Kelly

Postby Crazy Dazz on Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:05 pm

MrWoollie wrote:
Crazy Dazz wrote:
Streaker wrote:https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/fremantle-dockers/afl-trades-2018-fremantle-dockers-wont-get-tim-kelly-for-pick-11-according-to-reports-ng-b88989849z
Bell wants to be careful.
It's one thing to come in and try to establish yourself as the new broom who won't be making any more shit trades, but he risks getting a lot of people offside if he's not careful.

They've already got the situation where a manager considers their club toxic, Bell should work on repairing those bridges, not burning them further.

There is every chance that Bell is just being a [Greg Williams] to try to get WC to pay over the odds.
Typical Muppet crap if you ask me.
Which is why he needs to be careful. Or in future he'll have even more managers refusing to send their players to hi club.
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Re: Tim Kelly

Postby Crazy Dazz on Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:12 pm

Voice of Reason wrote:And we should resist the temptation to pay overs for TK, much as I like him as a player.
Absolutely.
If Kelly had said nothing, how much would we be offering up to get another 24yr old mid onto our list? Not much given our current stocks. To me that's the starting point, and the maximum, and we work backwards from there.

Then consider what do Geelong get if he does as threatened and walks at the end of next season? Well they get one more year of service, then nothing. So what's that one year worth? That's the minimum.
So then somewhere in that range.

Having said that, we should not lose sight of the fact the whol reason we're discussing this is that Tim and Caitlin have a very genuine and pressing reason to return to Perth. It needs to happen, it MUST happen.

Both clubs need to get their shit together and make it happen.
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