No Real Surprises. I've kept it to the first round, as it becomes a bit of a lottery after that.
1 & 2. Gold Coast - Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson
Hard to see anything different happening. Giving two best mates too much money and letting them lose on the Gold Coast would seem to be SOP for the Suns.
3. Melbourne - Hayden Young
Melbourne will have the eyes on a couple of boys, and for pick 8 it may be a case of who slips through, so I expect they will snap up Young. They may yet trade pick 3 backwards, but with GWS now out of the running there may be nobody left to pay their price. I will of course piss myself laughing in they now do a deal with Sydney.
Edit: Speculation that Melbourne may be targetting Jackson, and may even jump on him early to beat Freo.
4. GWS - Caleb Serong
At 4 & 5 its almost a toss up between Serong, Flanders, and Ash. Having been royally screwed by Sydney, I'm guessing GWS will go for Serong.
5. GWS - Tom Green
(Sydney Bid Matched)
Sydney would be more than happy to have Green, so they will bid, but can't see GWS not matching given the extraordinary lengths taken to leap-frog his position.
6. Sydney - Sam Flanders
Few guys in the mix here, but Flanders probably the best available.
7. Adelaide - Dylan Stephens
The Crows made out like bandits in their trade with GWS. But even so, they must have been happy enough to move backwards.
That to me suggests they may forsake a more obvious choice and go for the local boy.
8. Fremantle - Luke Jackson
Ah, the Muppetts. Always good for some giggles.
Logic says they take whomever is left, probably Ash, at this stage. But they will be nervous about a bid on Henry, so I'm guessing they take the opportunity to lock in Jackson.
9. Melbourne - Lachlan Ash
If things go as I suggested, Melbourne will be positively drooling by this point, and will jump on Ash.
(but if he and Jackson both gone possibly Weightman.)
10. Carlton - Brodie Kemp
As things transpire, there could be a couple of very good players still available, but if my guesses are correct then Kemp will be the best prospect for Carlton at this point.
11. Fremantle - Deven Robertson
Yes, this is in many ways worse than him going to Geelong. The consolation would be knowing that we could never have gotten him anyway. Good Luck young fella.
Obviously its also contingent on their being no bid for Henry.
12. Fremantle - Liam Henry
(Hawthorn Bid Matched)
Yes, I am being excessively kind to Freo, but this is what I guess will happen, not a wish list.
This is what I dislike about the whole bidding process. It is wholly depending on another club being a [Greg Williams]. Enough of a [Greg Williams] to keep the club honest, but not so much of a [Greg Williams] that they say "fuck you, you can have him."
Henry could attract a bid earlier. Melbourne and Carlton are definite candidates to try and upset Freo's pick 11.
But, would Freo sacrifice pick 11 (and Robertson) to keep Henry? It's a tough one to answer, and knowing that do clubs want to take the gamble?
I'm tipping Hawks to make the bid because at this point Freo won't refuse, but if they did, I think the Hawks would be happy with Henry.
13. Hawthorn - Fischer McCasey
Seems like an obvious choice for the Hawks (so will probably be wrong) and I'm guessing should still be available.
14. Port Adelaide - Josh Worrel
Port are perhaps the hardest to tip, given the strength of their hand. They would have been hoping for Stephens but if he's gone Worrel will be a good option.
15. Western Bulldogs - Cody Weightman
Could almost swap 14 & 15.
16. Hawthorn - Finn Maginness
(Geelong Bid Matched)
As always there is the chance of him going before their pick, but if not I'm tipping Geelong have a crack. (If for no other reason than that are a bunch of [Greg Williams].)
17. Geelong - Miles Bergman
By this point the Rats will be targetting Bergman and Day. They will hope that Day slips to their next pick.
18. Gold Coast - Will Day
It starts to get very tricky around this point. Of the options available I'm tipping the Suns to ask Will to join his cousin>
But I also suspect they may be a smokey for Taylor.
19. Port Adelaide - Trent Bianco
If things go as I'm guessing, Port won't necessarily get their preferred choices, but they still have a strong hand and can take some good players. Local boy Will Gould be another option at this point.
20. Geelong - Cooper Stephens
I don't see him lasting till their next pick, so I'm tipping Geelong to take him at this point.
21. Port Adelaide - Will Gould
I think they will be happy if he's still available.
22. Richmond - Sam De Koning
The WA trio of Taylor, Rivers, and Sharp are all a chance of a late 1st round pick.
Apart from the obvious early picks, I will be interested to see if I get even remotely close with any of these.
Ok guys, over to you.
